The Road to Pasadena...Huge Conference Title Games to Decide BCS Title Matchup

We've said it before here on the blog...but this time, it's no exaggeration. As conference title week looms, never before has there been this much uncertainty and power at the top of the BCS standings. Entering week 14, a week before conference title week, 7 of the 8 RUTS teams are in the top 8 of the BCS. The lone outsider is #7 Penn State.

The nation's top 2 teams, #1 Ohio State and #2 Oklahoma, remained steady, setting us up for an epic battle at Cowboys Stadium next week. The winner of that game will be Big 12 Champions and will lock up a spot in the BCS title game. After that, the picture gets murky.



Will the loser of that game still be alive for a rematch in the title game? Or will another RUTS team claim the #2 spot? Let's examine...

If #3 Florida defeats LSU, many experts predict the Gators will have done enough to leap frog a 1-loss Big 12 team (the loser of Oklahoma/Ohio State) and earn a trip to play for the crystal ball. Even though the Gators lost to Ohio State 38-0 earlier this season, look for Florida to have enough momentum and BCS support to pass even the Buckeyes with a victory over LSU. However, if the Gators lose....things could get dicey.

As predicted last week, Miami was this week's biggest winner, and find themselves smack dab in the middle of the national championship race. The Canes, ranked #9 last week, pounded previously unbeaten Maryland, and vaulted all the way to #4 in the BCS (and #3 in the AP/Media Poll). Miami could easily sneak its way into the National title game if LSU knocks off Florida in the SEC Championship. Miami will be rooting hard for the Tigers to defeat Florida and then hope it can hold off the Tigers for that coveted #2 spot. If they do, it will be an all-Big 12 title game in Pasadena.

Alabama, currently ranked #5 in the BCS may have a harder time getting into the title game. The Tide will sit anxiously and wait, and be forced to root for rival LSU to beat Florida. Even if that happens, Alabama will still have to leap frog #4 Miami, and being .03 points behind the Canes, that might be difficult to accomplish with no game on the schedule. No matter what happens in the SEC title game, Alabama has probably locked up an at-large BCS bowl bid, which will force the loser of the SEC title game to the Capital One Bowl.

LSU enters the SEC Championship game for the first time in RUTS3, and you've got to think that Coach cjohnchavis will be chomping at the bit (pun intended) to beat the Gators after Florida upset LSU in week 7. Florida will rely heavily on Mack Brown, and if the Tigers can slow him down, they'll be able to send the kitchen sink at UF QB Trey Burton. The Tigers blitz pressure is relentless, and they will have to be on top of their game to beat surging Florida. If the Tigers get the win, will they gain enough strength in the BCS voters eyes to jump past Miami, Alabama, and the loser of the Big 12 title game to land at the #2 spot?

#7 Penn State and #8 North Carolina are hanging around in the BCS, but with no games remaining before bowl selections are made, will find themselves out of contention for a national title game spot. 

With so much uncertainty, it's impossible to accurately predict what will happen in the conference title games or how the bowl games will shake out, but we'll take a stab at it.

Big XII Championship Game Prediction
The big showdown between #1 and #2 happens in the Jerry-Dome / Cowboys Stadium. Ohio State enters the game as a 1 point favorite, but Vegas lines are trending toward the Sooners over the past dew days. Ohio State has had a lot of success running the football against the Sooners over the past few seasons, but in this game, it might be the arm of Heisman candidate Kenny Guiton that the Bucks have to rely on. Oklahoma's defense will be focusing on shutting down the talented RB duo of Jamaal Berry and Jordan Hall, which might open some passing lanes for Guiton to target a plethora of fast and reliable WRs and TEs.

The Sooners enter the game touting the best running attack that Coach utvol27 has enjoyed in RUTS3. With Heisman front-runner JurMuriquan James putting up unearthly numbers on the ground, look for the Sooners to ride the James train out of the station. The question is, can they run the football against OSU's stout and fast defense. Look for QB Drew Breezy to mix in some option runs and some short/medium passes to WRs Kenny Stills and Sheldon Ochoquatro to keep the Bucks guessing, but we think the Sooners will be forced to pass the football a lot in order to win this game. One thing that won't be of question is James' endurance. After the RB carried the ball 38 times in the Sooners final regular season game, he proved that he has the toughness to carry the load should the Sooners choose to pound the rock.

This game is tough to predict. On one hand, Ohio State has the talent advantage on paper, an explosive offense and a defensive unit that Coach UTVol54 claims to be one of the best he's ever coached. The Buckeyes have reeled off an impressive resume of wins, defeating the nation's #3, #5, #8 teams handily early in the season. But, with that said, when the going gets tough, in the past, Coach UTVol54 has NOT gotten going. This not only disappoints 80s singer Billy Ocean, but also the legion of Buckeye fans, longing for the program's first RUTS3 National Championship. Coach utvol27's Sooners seem to always find a way to make a play when they need one, and with a running game to go along with the deadly "Crossing Routes All Day" spread offense, we think the Sooners will find a way to be the team holding up the trophy at midfield after the game.

In a low scoring fight to the finish, we say Oklahoma 20, Ohio State 16.

SEC Championship Game Prediction
Who would have predicted this matchup at the beginning of the season? A young, fiery, RUTS newcomer leading a rag-tag bunch of jorts wearing forgotten-about athletes and a RUTS veteran who, despite a very successful and stats-producing coach, had yet to guide his team to a RUTS conference championship. Yes, these two coaches and programs may have been underdogs to reach this game at the beginning of the season, but after fighting through some adversity and hard knocks, here they are. They have certainly proven to be the best two teams in the SEC this season, having earned their spot in this game on true grit and poise on both sides of the ball. The winner of this game, however, will need to muster up enough big plays to get one more win, with the chance at PASADENA on the line.

Florida defeated LSU earlier this season 16-14, marking Coach Gump's coming-out-party to the nation. With that win, he went from RUTS rookie, to RUTS elite...and finishing off the regular season on a 9 game winning streak and with only 1 loss, Gump's vision and leadership have the Gators believing that no one can stop them. It's no secret what Florida plans to do...turn the Daddy of the Mack loose, and let him run. QB Trey Burton has done a tremendous job of keeping defenses guessing with a solid, yet unspectacular passing game, but the Gators offense revolves around Mack Brown. Florida's only loss of the season came in a game against Ohio State, where Brown was injured for the game after starting with 3 carries for 33 yards. Who knows how that game would have turned out with Brown on the field, mackin' on the Buckeyes defense and cheerleaders. If LSU is to win this game, they will have to keep Florida's offense from manageable 3rd down distances where they are forced to pass the ball instead of giving it to Brown.

LSU's star DE Sam Montgomery, the NCAA's all-time leader in sacks must have an impact on this game early and make his presence felt. If Monty can get some pressure on Burton and force the Gators into some 3rd and longs, Florida will have a tough time moving the ball and controlling the clock. However, should the Gators offense have success running the ball early, and often, they'll be able to control the clock, setting up another dramatic finish.

LSU's offense is led by QB Cameron Treangen. After missing the Tigers' final 2 regular season games stuck on a mission trip in Columbia, Treangen looks to get the start for the Tigers in this game. He will rely on RBs Spencer Ware and Will Chase to truck defenders and speedy WR Brian Abrams to get open in space. But, his not-so-secret weapon my be his do-it-all TE, Erik O'(my goodness) Neal. O'Neal can block like a guard, run routes like a leopard, jump like a leaping NCAA '11 Defensive Lineman/LB, and catch like one too. If O'Neal is able to make an impact in this game in the areas listed above, LSU will be tough to stop on offense.

The Gators defense has been stout all season. They rarely give up a big play and force offenses to slow and methodically march down the field. Then, they force a turnover. It's been Gump's recipe for success on defense all season...can he find the ingredients to complete one final recipe against LSU?

Like the other title game, we're torn on who to pick here. LSU is a surprise 4 point favorite (perhaps because of a rested, Cameron Treangen?) and that can't sit well with the Gators, who are unabashedly out to gain respect and and quiet the critics who say beating LSU twice in one season can't be done. The element of surprise is gone in this matchup, and we look for LSU's defense to have a game plan to at least contain Mack Brown. If that happens, can Florida survive? They didn't score an offensive TD in the week 7 victory over LSU, and we think that could spell doom this time. Steve Hand, Florida's great kicker, can only do so much, and the LSU defense will be tough to score on. We predict another low scoring game, but this time, LSU's purple and gold will get the win and possibly march on to Pasadena!

Final score...LSU 17, Florida 12

So, with those predictions in hand...here are the Bowl Projections as of today:

BCS National Championship Game
Oklahoma vs. LSU

Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs. Pittsburgh

Fiesta Bowl
Miami vs. Virginia Tech

Orange Bowl
Maryland vs. West Virginia

Rose Bowl
Penn State vs. Stanford (cpu teams)

Capital One Bowl
Florida vs. Missouri

Cotton Bowl
Ohio State vs. Tennessee

Outback Bowl
North Carolina vs. Nebraska